The key feature in this election is the
vote for independents and non-established parties. This vote is expected to remain above 20% and
could be as high as 25% or 27% of all votes. It is accepted that the 2011
election was a vote to remove Fianna Fail.
However the people also wanted “real change and reform” for the future. This
reform and change did not happen.
This reaffirms my believe that the
independent vote will remain high till such reform and change takes place or is
perceived to have taken place.
Another key point on the consistent
independent vote is the performance of the independents in Government since the
last election. Despite the media imbalance in favor of established political
parties and the various unconventional happenings of some independents, the
electorate sees them as a key-working component in the Dail.
In my comments before the 2011 election, I
forecasted the success of the independents.
I believe that real change and reform was expected, especially after the
financial crisis. I stated that the following
two elections after 2011 would be “strategic” elections. That is to say, a sizeable percentage of
voters are using their vote as a strategic vote as opposed to voting for an
established party.
Tomorrow, the Irish people living in
Ireland will be able to vote. It is a
crime that the hundreds of thousands that have had to leave, as a result of the
banking crisis, are not give the opportunity to vote.
I look forward to Saturday and to see the
results unfold.
Note: Poll Graph was from 2014 by Sunday Business Post
