Post Election 2016 Comment

Post Election 2016 Comment

………So now the most important political requirement is the formation of a stable Government.  The logical step is for the two main historical established parties to do so.  After all, they both want “the best for the people and the country.”  Unfortunately party political loyalty comes’s first, then the people and the country.

The most important step of managing the country by the two biggest established parties will NOT happen. 

Reform and change are the essential headings that must come onto the political agenda.  More than this, it is the enactment of change that is essential.

Some Key Facts -

Largest vote for established party was Fine Gael  544,240

Vote for non-established parties was                   575,113

Number of people who voted                           2,132,925

Number of people able to vote (2011)              2,243,176

Population of Ireland (est. CSO 2015)              4,609,600

                 

Population Abroad  (UN figures 2013)                 772,485

Election Ireland 2016

The key feature in this election is the vote for independents and non-established parties.  This vote is expected to remain above 20% and could be as high as 25% or 27% of all votes. It is accepted that the 2011 election was a vote to remove Fianna Fail.  However the people also wanted “real change and reform” for the future.   This reform and change did not happen.

This reaffirms my believe that the independent vote will remain high till such reform and change takes place or is perceived to have taken place.

Another key point on the consistent independent vote is the performance of the independents in Government since the last election. Despite the media imbalance in favor of established political parties and the various unconventional happenings of some independents, the electorate sees them as a key-working component in the Dail.

In my comments before the 2011 election, I forecasted the success of the independents.  I believe that real change and reform was expected, especially after the financial crisis.  I stated that the following two elections after 2011 would be “strategic” elections.  That is to say, a sizeable percentage of voters are using their vote as a strategic vote as opposed to voting for an established party.

Tomorrow, the Irish people living in Ireland will be able to vote.  It is a crime that the hundreds of thousands that have had to leave, as a result of the banking crisis, are not give the opportunity to vote.

I look forward to Saturday and to see the results unfold.

Note: Poll Graph was from 2014 by Sunday Business Post